Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7419…7029 crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 55% 55% -19.4%
≤30d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 55% 55% -19.4%
≤90d 11 -25.6% -32.7% 55% 55% -19.4%
all 11 -25.6% -32.7% 55% 55% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 55% -19.4%
10% -39.1% 36% -27.1%
15% -45.0% 18% -34.2%
20% -50.4% 18% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 85¢ 90¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.06 · official $19.65 · 18 history records