Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:59:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x741a…5862 weather 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%35W / 20L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 49% −$6
weather 44% +$9
other 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 32 +0.0% -9.5% 53% 0% -9.5%
all 55 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses35 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage119d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 27 $663 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 22 $511 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $321 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $579 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $381 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $1,301 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 02 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 31 $311 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 24 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $687 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $862 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 9? May 10 $335 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 27? Apr 27 $212 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $231 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 21? Apr 21 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 20? Apr 21 $287 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on April 14? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 11? Apr 13 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 8? Apr 10 $271 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $115 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 7? Apr 08 $124 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 6? Apr 08 $320 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 3? Apr 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 5? Apr 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 4? Apr 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 02 $143 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 30? Apr 02 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on March 29? Mar 30 $211 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 28? Mar 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on March 25? Mar 26 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on March 24 Mar 25 $235 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 23? Mar 24 $251 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on March 19 Mar 20 $291 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 18 Mar 19 $321 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 17? Mar 18 $310 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Mar Mar 17 $351 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 16 $399 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 13 Mar 14 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 12 $672 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10? Mar 10 $236 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 6? Mar 08 $236 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6? Mar 07 $236 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 4? Mar 06 $235 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $353 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $351 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $398 5d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $399 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $311 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 10d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $312 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $321 14d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $321 17d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $291 18d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $291 19d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $381 20d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $381 21d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $320 22d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $321 23d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $387 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $388 26d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $172 27d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $311 27d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $173 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $311 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $287 29d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $287 30d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $251 32d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $251 33d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $431 34d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $431 35d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $400 37d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $12 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records