Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

74 0x741d…1e84 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$205 (+13%) realized +$230 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$324per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,073now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤30d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
≤90d	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%
all	1	+45.5%	+31.7%	100%	100%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.7%	100%	+31.7%
10%	+19.1%	100%	+19.1%
15%	+7.6%	100%	+7.6%
20%	-3.0%	0%	-3.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$230 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,073

Realized+$230

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions4

Markets (closed)1 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$324

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Over	50¢	50¢	$837	$833	−$3 (-0%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	Algeria	10¢	10¢	$134	$141	+$7 (+5%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	27¢	22¢	$100	$83	−$17 (-17%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	Over	13¢	8¢	$28	$16	−$12 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 23	$505	+$230	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$595	15m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5)	BUY Algeria	10¢	$138	15m
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$735	16m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	13¢	$29	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	27¢	$102	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$254	1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$505	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,073.37 · official $1,073.37 (match) · 7 history records