Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x741e…8995 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 18% +$1
politics 9% $0
weather 6% +$1
culture 5% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 33 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 17 $16 $0 -1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Cantlay win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $13 $0 -2%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 01 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $0 $0 -5%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Mar 31 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $16 $0 +2%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 24 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on February 27? Mar 20 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $27 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $25 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $30 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $30 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $4 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $11 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $22 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $33 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $34 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $23 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $9 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $9 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 90¢ $3 335d
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 350d
Will India invade Pakistan before July? SELL No 100¢ $13 355d
Will India invade Pakistan before July? BUY No 99¢ $13 364d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 99¢ $13 364d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 95¢ $12 366d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 366d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 434d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records