Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:28:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7421…9604 crypto 284 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$791 (-6%) realized −$791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate56%159W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$711
other 4% −$296
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 33% -22.0%
≤30d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 33% -22.0%
≤90d 3 +3.3% -6.5% 67% 33% -22.0%
all 284 -3.6% -12.8% 56% 45% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 45% -14.9%
10% -21.1% 33% -23.0%
15% -28.8% 25% -30.5%
20% -35.8% 18% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses159 / 125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)284 / 284
History coverage174d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 284 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$3 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $38 +$23 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$51 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 17 $25 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 17 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 17 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jan 16 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jan 16 $128 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 16 $60 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 16 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 16 $251 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 16 $20 +$7 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 16 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 16 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 16 $129 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 16 $129 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 16 $125 −$15 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 16 $146 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 16 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 16 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 16 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 16 $16 −$15 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 16 $44 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 16 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 16 $65 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 16 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 16 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 16 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $26 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $61 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $38 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $38 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $89 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $11 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $7 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $9 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $12 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $11 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $11 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $8 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 153d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $19 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1022 history records