Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7423…c55f sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$355 (-10%) realized −$319 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$624
other 9% −$8
culture 7% −$250
world 1% −$36
crypto 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.7% +24.6% 43% 43% -13.4%
≤30d 7 +37.7% +24.6% 43% 43% -13.4%
≤90d 7 +37.7% +24.6% 43% 43% -13.4%
all 39 -43.5% -48.9% 18% 18% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 18% -44.5%
10% -53.8% 15% -49.8%
15% -58.2% 15% -54.6%
20% -62.3% 13% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$39 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$319
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage158d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 41¢ 12¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 +$32 +57%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $31 +$26 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $32 +$122 +383%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$9 -17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 13 $200 −$91 -46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? Mar 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 11 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Warriors Mar 11 $30 +$18 +61%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 22 $100 −$39 -39%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Jan 22 $116 +$22 +19%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jan 17 $100 −$19 -19%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jan 17 $100 −$12 -12%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming (BO3) Jan 16 $118 −$100 -85%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jan 16 $100 −$50 -50%
Suns vs. Pistons Jan 16 $100 −$21 -21%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jan 15 $124 −$24 -19%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jan 15 $120 −$20 -17%
Adelaide International: Ugo Humbert vs Alexander Shevchenko Jan 15 $112 −$12 -11%
Wizards vs. Clippers Jan 15 $212 −$12 -6%
Knicks vs. Kings Jan 15 $100 −$18 -18%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 15 $245 −$45 -18%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $126 −$26 -21%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $214 −$14 -7%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $8 −$3 -38%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 14 $130 −$30 -23%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) Jan 13 $58 −$40 -69%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC (BO3) Jan 13 $42 −$4 -9%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) Jan 13 $55 −$10 -18%
Hobart International: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Jan 13 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Jan 13 $100 +$56 +56%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $125 −$100 -80%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will "Venezuela" or "Maduro" be said at the 83rd Golden Globes? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Grizzlies Jan 12 $100 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $87 12h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 14h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $28 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 77¢ $57 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $153 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $32 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 31¢ $42 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $109 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $51 5d
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $50 98d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 99d
Bulls vs. Warriors SELL Warriors 50¢ $0 99d
Bulls vs. Warriors SELL Warriors 71¢ $48 99d
Bulls vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 44¢ $30 99d
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) BUY Yadong 35¢ $50 144d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance SELL Team WE 33¢ $53 146d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance SELL Team WE 47¢ $9 146d
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance BUY Team WE 56¢ $100 146d
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group SELL Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $41 146d
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group SELL Hanwha Life Esports 92¢ $88 146d
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group SELL Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $9 146d
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Cup Group BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $116 146d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $200 150d
Timberwolves vs. Rockets SELL Rockets 50¢ $81 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.37 · official $14.37 (match) · 109 history records