trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 33% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 38% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 38% | 0% | -10.0% |
| all | 17 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 65% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 89¢ | $33 | $33 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 19 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 03 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $72 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Meta buy TikTok? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 29 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +2% |