Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742c…0eed crypto 1751 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,512 (-22%) realized −$10,512 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate75%1487W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,229
other 0% −$62
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 710 -30.3% -36.9% 61% 22% -38.7%
≤30d 1973 -12.3% -20.6% 75% 27% -16.5%
≤90d 1973 -12.3% -20.6% 75% 27% -16.5%
all 1973 -12.3% -20.6% 75% 27% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 27% -16.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 13% -24.5%
15% -35.2% 7% -31.8%
20% -41.5% 4% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,512
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1487 / 486
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1973 / 1751
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1973 Trades
no open positions (418 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $22 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $20 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records