Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x742d…020d crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,581 (-8%) realized −$1,363 · open −$218
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate52%28W / 26L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$310
7 days+$537
14 days+$537
30 days+$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$1,774
sports 19% +$112
other 1% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -41.8% -47.3% 22% 17% +6.4%
≤30d 18 -41.8% -47.3% 22% 17% +6.4%
≤90d 19 -44.8% -50.1% 21% 16% -6.6%
all 54 -25.4% -32.5% 52% 22% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 22% -18.5%
10% -38.9% 6% -26.3%
15% -44.8% 6% -33.4%
20% -50.3% 6% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$514) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$182 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,363
Unrealized−$218
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage156d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $222 $5 −$218 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $222 +$7 +3%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $448 −$437 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $216 +$233 +108%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $88 +$128 +146%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $329 −$242 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $563 +$2,055 +365%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $567 −$554 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $58 −$56 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $58 −$56 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $57 −$56 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $58 −$56 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $58 −$57 -97%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $436 −$426 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 16 $2,071 −$948 -46%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 16 $400 +$13 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 16 $600 −$177 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 16 $423 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 16 $579 +$27 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 16 $200 +$26 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 16 $600 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 16 $53 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 16 $705 −$652 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 16 $878 −$58 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 16 $904 +$71 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 16 $1,273 +$107 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 16 $896 −$391 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 16 $486 +$29 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 16 $769 +$85 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 16 $733 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 16 $648 +$52 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 16 $587 +$31 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 16 $514 +$36 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 16 $215 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 16 $122 −$68 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 16 $110 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jan 16 $176 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 16 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 16 $150 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 15 $200 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 15 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 15 $150 −$40 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $229 54m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 11¢ $230 55m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $153 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $69 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $448 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 56¢ $449 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $216 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $88 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $87 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $329 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,618 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $563 3d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $567 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over 5¢ $103 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $58 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $58 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 3¢ $52 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $57 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $57 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $58 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $52 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $58 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $58 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $58 4d
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano BUY Carano 19¢ $436 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1,079 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $181 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $912 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $992 155d
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $203 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.80 · official $4.80 (match) · 162 history records