Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
74 0x742d…100e crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,402 (+11%) realized +$1,432 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,493
7 days+$2,296
14 days+$2,296
30 days+$2,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2,277
world 1% −$24
other 1% −$9
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +278.9% +242.8% 71% 57% +13.0%
≤30d 10 +197.0% +168.7% 70% 50% +12.8%
≤90d 11 +179.2% +152.6% 73% 45% +12.2%
all 35 +43.9% +30.2% 54% 34% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 34% +10.6%
10% +17.7% 26% +0.0%
15% +6.4% 14% -9.6%
20% -4.1% 11% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$13 · ×9.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.56 per $1 lost it wins $11.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$4,155
Realized+$1,432
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)35 / 52
History coverage562d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $681 $728 +$46 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Yes 60¢ 67¢ $624 $701 +$78 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $610 $650 +$40 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Yes 62¢ 85¢ $313 $431 +$118 (+38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? No 32¢ 32¢ $384 $390 +$6 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? No 26¢ 28¢ $334 $346 +$12 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? No 33¢ 33¢ $221 $220 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? No 19¢ 15¢ $245 $188 −$57 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? No 93¢ 99¢ $143 $152 +$9 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $75 $83 +$8 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Yes 59¢ 65¢ $74 $81 +$7 (+9%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 86¢ $49 $53 +$4 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+6%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 96¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 35¢ 36¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? No 42¢ 35¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 30? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? No 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? No 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,564 +$1,644 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $365 −$151 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $333 +$133 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $849 +$203 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,712 +$486 +28%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $33 +$4 +11%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $99 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Mar 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Mar 13 $42 +$6 +14%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 06 $32 −$30 -95%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Peace" 5+ times during his presser with Zelensk Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Feb 28 $3 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Feb 21 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14? Feb 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 11 $1 +$7 +576%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Jan 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $27 +$1 +4%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 25 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 25 $0 $0 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -45%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Dec 29 $1 $0 +29%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 18 $1 $0 +23%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $10 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 27¢ $155 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 32¢ $201 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 33¢ $5 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 33¢ $12 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 26¢ $148 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 32¢ $201 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 33¢ $207 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 26¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 28¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 72¢ $61 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,155.07 · official $4,155.07 (match) · 1328 history records