Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7430…fcc9 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-10%) realized −$23 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$18
14 days+$12
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$2
crypto 26% −$12
sports 5% −$10
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.3% +24.2% 88% 75% +11.5%
≤30d 21 -24.6% -31.8% 52% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 33 -24.4% -31.6% 55% 36% -23.0%
all 33 -24.4% -31.6% 55% 36% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 36% -23.0%
10% -38.1% 24% -30.3%
15% -44.1% 21% -37.1%
20% -49.6% 15% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 88¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +56%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22? May 22 $2 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 May 18-24? May 21 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 21 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20? May 20 $5 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $410 in May? May 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 15? May 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 SELL Mayweather 62¢ $1 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 5d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 10d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? BUY No 3¢ $1 17d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $5 19d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 19d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 20d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 22d
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 77¢ $5 24d
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 BUY Mayweather 63¢ $1 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 27d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.28 · official $63.28 (match) · 64 history records