Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:14:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x7431…d7cc crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$43 (+5%) realized +$16 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$23
14 days+$66
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$21
other 10% −$17
world 10% −$2
sports 3% +$14
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -64.5% -67.9% 0% 0% -66.1%
≤30d 61 +17.4% +6.2% 36% 36% +5.8%
≤90d 143 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 42% -7.8%
all 143 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 42% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 42% -7.8%
10% -17.6% 38% -16.6%
15% -25.6% 34% -24.7%
20% -32.9% 29% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)143 / 157
History coverage83d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+35%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 29¢ $38 $3 −$35 (-91%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 10¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-31? Yes 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 47¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 22¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 32¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy Cheddy $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 25¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 23¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-31? Yes 25¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $20 −$9 -47%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -43%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $10 −$6 -58%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +52%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 +$26 +640%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3 +$11 +365%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$22 +560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $4 +$17 +406%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$9 +170%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 −$3 -98%
The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 31 $4 +$3 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $4 +$8 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? SELL Yes $1 5h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 32¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico vs. South Africa end BUY 19¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY 10¢ $7 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $12 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 431 history records