Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7431…be26 weather 794 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate71%547W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$10
14 days+$26
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$65
other 0% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +19.6% +8.2% 98% 22% -7.8%
≤30d 332 +50.3% +36.0% 98% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 766 +13.9% +3.1% 71% 19% -10.2%
all 766 +13.9% +3.1% 71% 19% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.1% 19% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -6.8% 19% -18.8%
15% -15.8% 19% -26.7%
20% -24.1% 19% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses547 / 219
Open positions28
Markets (closed)766 / 794
History coverage69d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 766 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 19? No 85¢ 100¢ $14 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 19? No 94¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 19? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 20? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? No 99¢ 97¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 20? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19? No 93¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on June Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Jun Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 13 Jun 14 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 85¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $15 6h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $15 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 98¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 94¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 93¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 BUY No 93¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 SELL No 100¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 29h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 85¢ $6 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.21 · official $340.20 · 2467 history records