Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7434…eeac crypto 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$396 (+19%) realized +$449 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%37W / 82L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day81.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$352
14 days+$386
30 days+$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$363
other 33% +$44
sports 11% −$7
tech 6% −$25
politics 3% −$11
world 2% −$3
finance 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +6.4% -3.7% 31% 29% +18.9%
≤30d 119 +8.4% -1.9% 31% 29% +21.0%
≤90d 119 +8.4% -1.9% 31% 29% +21.0%
all 119 +8.4% -1.9% 31% 29% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 29% +21.0%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 27% +9.4%
15% -19.9% 24% -1.1%
20% -27.7% 24% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized+$449
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses37 / 82
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions44
Markets (closed)119 / 164
History coverage9d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day81.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $52 $46 −$6 (-11%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 82¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $38 +$7 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $45 $34 −$11 (-25%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 95¢ $21 $33 +$12 (+56%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $32 $33 +$2 (+5%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 52¢ 62¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+19%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 61¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 52¢ 55¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 51¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Yes 13¢ $64 $23 −$41 (-65%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 35¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 68¢ $10 $17 +$8 (+80%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$3 (+29%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes $24 $12 −$12 (-49%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $31 −$2 -6%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -92%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 −$2 -50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $12 −$6 -50%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $31 −$10 -32%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $13 −$3 -20%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 +$27 +809%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $9 −$8 -84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $18 −$15 -82%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $22 −$17 -78%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Obama" this week? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$12 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$5 +123%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$17 +229%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 15 $7 +$11 +168%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +195%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +254%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 +$26 +475%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $11 +$27 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$27 +117%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +243%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 +$10 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$16 +260%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $14 −$12 -82%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -30%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +445%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$11 -74%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $27 −$9 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No $14 24m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $6 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $3 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $6 34m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $0 34m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes $0 36m
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL Yes $0 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 44m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No $5 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 45m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $0 46m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No $10 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 21? BUY Yes $9 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $652.63 · official $652.65 (match) · 799 history records