Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:21:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x7434…2ff4 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,629 (-7%) realized −$15,635 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%77W / 158L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$879per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$351est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$1,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$845
7 days−$845
14 days−$1,834
30 days−$1,357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$375
sports 24% −$14,525
world 1% −$1,693
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.6% -50.8% 0% 0% -54.1%
≤30d 10 -22.3% -29.7% 20% 20% -29.4%
≤90d 94 -25.3% -32.4% 28% 28% -28.3%
all 235 -10.0% -18.6% 33% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 33% -16.8%
10% -26.4% 32% -24.7%
15% -33.5% 32% -32.0%
20% -40.0% 31% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$1,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,348 vs −$762 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$1,610
Realized−$15,635
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses77 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Est. fees paid−$351
Open positions3
Markets (closed)235 / 238
History coverage158d
Avg bet$879
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $992 $985 −$7 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $318 $316 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $294 $310 +$16 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $499 −$194 -39%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $417 −$412 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $641 −$225 -35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $160 −$13 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,002 −$988 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $980 −$965 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,007 −$989 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $949 +$1,038 +109%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $558 +$1,393 +250%
Spread: Girona FC (-1.5) May 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $679 −$664 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 07 $558 −$546 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $1,523 −$1,500 -98%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $680 −$667 -98%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) May 05 $94 −$91 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $396 −$386 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $493 −$482 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1,017 −$999 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 05 $1,910 +$1,010 +53%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $4 +$7 +166%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $897 −$897 -100%
Spread: Valencia CF (-1.5) May 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $608 −$608 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 04 $509 −$509 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? May 04 $452 −$452 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 04 $563 −$563 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01? May 04 $1,995 −$1,995 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $563 +$820 +146%
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $564 −$564 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Apr 28 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Apr 28 $497 −$497 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $565 −$565 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $500 +$616 +123%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23? Apr 24 $823 +$1,016 +124%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $500 −$337 -67%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $800 +$536 +67%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5) Apr 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 23 $908 −$908 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 23 $906 −$906 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $679 +$1,337 +197%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-13? Apr 16 $799 −$799 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $202 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $98 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 28¢ $306 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,001 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $499 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $327 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $417 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $416 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $641 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $147 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $160 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $393 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $608 9d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 9d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $980 22d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,007 22d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $949 25d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 29d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 28¢ $556 29d
Spread: Girona FC (-1.5) BUY Girona FC 12¢ $3 41d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $679 41d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 23¢ $2 45d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Timberwolves 28¢ $558 45d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Timberwolves 48¢ $1,523 45d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 20¢ $2 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 38¢ $677 46d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 46d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY No 48¢ $1,016 46d
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) BUY Club Atlético de Madrid 6¢ $2 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,610.19 · official $1,610.19 (match) · 560 history records