Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7438…5ec2 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$2
other 16% $0
politics 11% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
sports 3% −$5
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -5.2% -14.2% 52% 0% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 0% -11.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -19.8%
15% -29.9% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage478d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 −$3 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $39 +$1 +1%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 28 $1 −$1 -41%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $5 $0 +7%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? May 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will X buy TikTok? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 21 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Hornets Mar 04 $11 −$5 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $25 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $36 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $36 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $21 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $16 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $37 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $7 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $34 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $36 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records