Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7439…b8ef weather 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,966 (-4%) realized −$1,925 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate80%296W / 72L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$93
14 days−$244
30 days−$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$1,967
crypto 7% +$87
world 2% +$8
tech 1% +$1
other 1% −$172
politics 1% +$39
finance 0% −$77
culture 0% −$14
economics 0% +$2
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.5% -29.9% 45% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 63 -7.2% -16.0% 73% 8% -13.6%
≤90d 220 -2.6% -11.9% 85% 7% -12.2%
all 368 -1.4% -10.8% 80% 23% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 23% -13.1%
10% -19.3% 13% -21.4%
15% -27.1% 7% -29.0%
20% -34.2% 4% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$51 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,925
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses296 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)368 / 370
History coverage163d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? No 76¢ 38¢ $70 $35 −$35 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $77 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $67 −$17 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $77 −$52 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $263 +$12 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $85 −$9 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $37 −$28 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$155 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? Jun 17 $158 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 +$20 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 06 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $567 −$534 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $546 +$6 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 05 $69 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $551 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $287 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $490 +$50 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $106 −$14 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $467 +$12 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $464 +$39 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $458 +$17 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $513 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $419 +$15 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $355 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $321 +$11 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 76¢ $71 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $72 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 91¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 91¢ $77 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? SELL No 98¢ $76 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $76 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $72 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $70 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 73¢ $14 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 32¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 72¢ $35 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $14 36h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $63 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $67 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $139 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $139 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $142 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $9 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $65 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $133 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 89¢ $131 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 87¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 89¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 98¢ $85 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.62 · official $37.62 (match) · 1366 history records