Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7439…8fee sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,982 (-7%) realized −$1,979 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%32W / 26L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,347
7 days−$3,330
14 days−$1,494
30 days−$1,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$3,972
politics 24% +$1,358
other 23% +$548
economics 2% −$18
world 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.9% -32.9% 60% 40% -30.0%
≤30d 30 -16.5% -24.4% 57% 47% -13.8%
≤90d 36 -14.7% -22.8% 56% 47% -14.0%
all 58 -11.4% -19.8% 55% 43% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 43% -15.1%
10% -27.5% 36% -23.2%
15% -34.5% 26% -30.6%
20% -40.9% 16% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$329 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,979
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses32 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage151d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4,013 +$789 +20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $294 +$60 +20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $4,426 −$4,382 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $3,465 +$1,550 +45%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $989 −$903 -91%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $530 −$481 -91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 +$3 +5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $293 +$17 +6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 23 $115 −$110 -95%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $556 +$127 +23%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $427 −$422 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $352 +$198 +56%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $892 +$336 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $340 +$159 +47%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $492 +$170 +35%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $5,779 +$1,586 +27%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $59 −$56 -95%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $108 −$108 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $14 +$6 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $19 +$11 +56%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -8%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $381 +$117 +31%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $222 +$78 +35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $46 −$13 -28%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $166 +$161 +97%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 12 $187 −$187 -100%
Germany vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $562 −$158 -28%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Lithuania vs. Georgia: Both Teams to Score Mar 29 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 29 $310 +$140 +45%
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5) Mar 28 $85 +$65 +77%
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $24 −$23 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship? Feb 08 $588 +$88 +15%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $661 +$41 +6%
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Feb 01 $115 −$100 -87%
Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jan 30 $5 $0 +8%
Alcaraz vs. Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jan 30 $33 +$41 +122%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $134 +$40 +30%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-2.5) vs Zverev (+2.5) Jan 30 $290 +$234 +80%
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) Jan 30 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $65 +$67 +104%
Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference? Jan 29 $17 +$4 +21%
Will Powell say "Tariff" 13+ times during January press conference? Jan 28 $451 −$21 -5%
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference? Jan 28 $4 +$6 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $277 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $123 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $174 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $157 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $59 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $190 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $408 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $11 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $134 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $213 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,108 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 60¢ $100 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 60¢ $120 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $24 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $448 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $2,828 3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 56¢ $171 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 454 history records