Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743c…6c2e politics 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 290d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$3
politics 23% −$1
other 20% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 6% −$1
sports 6% $0
culture 5% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 10 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.1%
all 41 -0.3% -9.8% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

290d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage290d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Dec 19 $32 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 -0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by September 30? Sep 24 $30 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Sep 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 12 $33 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $62 −$1 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump resign today? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $21 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $12 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $29 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $22 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $7 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $33 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $33 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $30 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 47h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $30 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 54¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $12 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $30 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records