Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x743d…f77e other 553 markets active 13h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,123 (-0%) realized −$1,053 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate84%434W / 82L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$414per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$13,714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$90
14 days−$342
30 days+$2,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$627
world 22% +$228
sports 11% −$1,419
finance 8% +$837
politics 6% +$710
economics 4% +$212
tech 3% −$1,811
culture 1% +$269
crypto 0% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 83 +0.2% -9.4% 83% 28% -4.2%
≤90d 288 +1.3% -8.3% 84% 33% -5.9%
all 516 +0.1% -9.4% 84% 27% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 27% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 13% -18.7%
15% -26.0% 8% -26.6%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$234 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$13,714
Realized−$1,053
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses434 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions37
Markets (closed)516 / 553
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$414
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $3,792 $3,780 −$12 (-0%)
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 84¢ 86¢ $938 $954 +$15 (+2%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $890 $893 +$3 (+0%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $829 $854 +$24 (+3%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 74¢ $885 $852 −$32 (-4%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 95¢ $812 $805 −$7 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 82¢ 99¢ $596 $716 +$120 (+20%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $575 $596 +$21 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $481 $548 +$66 (+14%)
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $506 $519 +$13 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $376 $397 +$21 (+6%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $282 $298 +$16 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 86¢ 98¢ $215 $246 +$31 (+15%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 93¢ $225 $221 −$4 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $195 $208 +$13 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 90¢ 100¢ $187 $207 +$20 (+11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $195 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 73¢ 78¢ $162 $171 +$9 (+6%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 66¢ $183 $169 −$14 (-8%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? No 92¢ 86¢ $170 $159 −$11 (-7%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 99¢ $134 $146 +$12 (+9%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $92 $137 +$45 (+48%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 69¢ $103 $104 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $146 +$91 +62%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $65 −$10 -16%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $201 +$4 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $277 −$276 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $363 +$21 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $175 +$22 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 12 $675 +$56 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $492 −$66 -14%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 09 $353 +$26 +7%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $306 −$9 -3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 09 $110 −$103 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $138 −$136 -99%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $96 −$96 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 06 $3,593 +$269 +8%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $545 +$19 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $58 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $428 +$28 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 61 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $159 −$152 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $133 +$16 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $69 −$49 -71%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 03 $2,641 +$472 +18%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 02 $102 +$53 +52%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $310 +$27 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 02 $678 +$27 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Jun 01 $302 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 01 $289 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $879 +$204 +23%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu May 31 $498 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 31 $584 +$68 +12%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? May 31 $123 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 31 $281 −$85 -30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 31 $188 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 31 $295 +$23 +8%
Will MrBeast say "World Cup" during his next YouTube video? May 30 $42 +$19 +45%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $1,572 +$66 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May? May 30 $505 +$44 +9%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 30 $861 +$34 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May? May 30 $690 +$72 +10%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in May? May 30 $414 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $268 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in May? May 30 $52 +$6 +12%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May? May 30 $172 +$23 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $44 +$37 +85%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $1,376 +$214 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 69¢ $55 12h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $217 13h
Will USD/JPY hit 130 (Low) in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 13h
Will USD/JPY hit 130 (Low) in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 13h
Will USD/JPY hit 130 (Low) in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $7 43h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $67 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $24 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,950 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $277 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $76 2d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $231 4d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $116 4d
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $209 4d
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $77 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $413 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $63 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? SELL No 21¢ $45 7d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $15 7d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $282 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $148 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 73¢ $148 7d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $284 8d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $10 8d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 98¢ $201 8d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $4 8d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 8 2026? SELL No 85¢ $100 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $110 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,714.33 · official $13,714.35 (match) · 3500 history records