Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7441…bb1e other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 73L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$9
sports 28% −$1
other 24% −$8
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 16% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.6%
all 93 -2.6% -11.9% 22% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage452d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 17¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $152 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $138 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $139 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $225 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $136 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $138 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $324 −$4 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $139 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $517 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $147 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $468 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $262 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $173 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $294 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $297 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $148 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $166 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $75 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $157 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 23 $148 −$6 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $251 +$3 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1,448 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,065 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $809 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,064 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 05 $8 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $144 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $152 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $131 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $138 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $118 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $139 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $87 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $87 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $56 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $75 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $138 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $3 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $97 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $136 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $103 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $138 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 18¢ $52 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $51 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $50 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $54 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $73 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 332 history records