Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7442…470c
crypto · 104 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$22 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses53 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)100 / 104
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Pelicans 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$1 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Trump say "Caravan" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$6 +569%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 +$4 +409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $2 −$1 -49%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 02 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 02 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 02 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$27
other 5% +$11
politics 3% −$7
world 1% −$1
sports 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "TikTok" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji BUY Yes 11¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31d
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 71d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 71d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 71d
Will Trump say "Caravan" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 6¢ $1 72d
Will Trump say "Delcy" or "Rodriguez" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 6¢ $1 72d
Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) BUY Yes 8¢ $1 72d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +69.7% +53.5% 100% 100% +53.5%
≤30d 1 +69.7% +53.5% 100% 100% +53.5%
≤90d 100 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 31% -21.1%
all 100 -22.1% -29.5% 53% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 31% -21.1%
10% -36.2% 16% -28.7%
15% -42.4% 11% -35.5%
20% -48.1% 7% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.54 · official $12.54 (match) · 308 history records