Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7449…515e other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$7
politics 22% +$6
world 20% +$1
other 16% −$1
tech 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -9.5%
all 68 +1.2% -8.5% 41% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage484d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $96 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $161 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $320 +$4 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $157 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $182 −$9 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $181 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $179 +$3 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $162 −$2 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $160 +$4 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $232 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $1,024 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,022 +$3 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,022 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $929 $0 +0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 11 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 30 $9 $0 -4%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 24 $16 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce Chris Waller as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jul 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $2 $0 +16%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $36 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $5 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $57 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $96 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $50 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $42 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $104 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $57 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $110 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $99 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $48 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $157 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $157 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $173 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $173 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $173 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $182 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records