Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
74 0x7449…7220 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+4%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$9
other 28% −$1
sports 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -34.1% -40.4% 17% 17% -7.8%
≤90d 6 -34.1% -40.4% 17% 17% -7.8%
all 6 -34.1% -40.4% 17% 17% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 17% -7.8%
10% -46.1% 17% -16.6%
15% -51.3% 17% -24.6%
20% -56.1% 17% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×6.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage19d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $122 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 +$10 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.56 · official $50.56 (match) · 14 history records