Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:17:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x744a…02f6 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 25% −$22
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$2
world 3% −$7
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.6% -10.0% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage130d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 20 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $183 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $374 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $279 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $174 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $212 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $127 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $360 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $441 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $518 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $533 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $235 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $375 −$2 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $249 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 1h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 5h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $45 7h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $45 8h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $45 10h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 11h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 20h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 20h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 25h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 28h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 31h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $11 33h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $11 34h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 36h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 42h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 44h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 45h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 46h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $45.00 (match) · 1331 history records