Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x744b…8d31 weather 423 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$818 (-6%) realized −$818 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%190W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$31
14 days−$21
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 28% +$10
other 23% −$82
world 22% −$617
politics 12% −$31
crypto 10% −$112
sports 5% −$28
finance 0% −$28
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.6% -24.6% 48% 36% -12.8%
≤30d 72 +0.5% -9.1% 46% 33% -14.6%
≤90d 332 -7.9% -16.7% 42% 23% -18.1%
all 418 +0.7% -8.8% 45% 25% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 25% -15.9%
10% -17.6% 21% -23.9%
15% -25.5% 16% -31.3%
20% -32.8% 14% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$763
Realized−$818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses190 / 228
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)418 / 423
History coverage111d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 418 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $662 $660 −$2 (-0%)
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 70¢ 68¢ $71 $69 −$2 (-3%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 56¢ 64¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -62%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$8 -49%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $30 −$3 -10%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 23 $30 −$14 -47%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +16%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$6 -29%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15 −$9 -59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 -11%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $510 +$26 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $135 +$1 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Will Sébastien Lecornu be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidenti Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presi Jun 09 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $665 2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 2h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 20¢ $7 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $22 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 61¢ $32 2h
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 85¢ $9 21h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $5 39h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4d
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 64¢ $30 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $5 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $763.25 · official $763.25 (match) · 1169 history records