Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:59:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x744c…e37f world 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$84,295 (+6%) realized +$48,517 · open +$35,778
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate69%63W / 28L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$12,656per market
Trades / day59.8pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$109,092now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$59,685
crypto 12% +$32,261
other 8% +$19,417
politics 5% +$1,196
economics 1% +$52
sports 1% +$1,142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +190.3% +162.7% 38% 31% +12.6%
≤30d 43 +72.3% +55.9% 60% 30% -8.1%
≤90d 91 +31.4% +18.9% 69% 22% -3.6%
all 91 +31.4% +18.9% 69% 22% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.9% 22% -3.6%
10% +7.5% 20% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -2.9% 18% -21.3%
20% -12.4% 14% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$13,307) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,647 vs −$922 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.02 per $1 lost it wins $4.02
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$109,092
Realized+$48,517
Unrealized+$35,778
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses63 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions18
Markets (closed)91 / 105
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$12,656
Trades / day59.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 92¢ $13,983 $28,595 +$14,612 (+104%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 52¢ 98¢ $12,005 $22,865 +$10,859 (+90%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 78¢ $10,000 $11,833 +$1,833 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $4,990 $7,340 +$2,350 (+47%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 94¢ $4,087 $6,328 +$2,240 (+55%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 53¢ $3,280 $4,609 +$1,329 (+41%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $4,350 $4,375 +$25 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $3,700 $3,848 +$148 (+4%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 82¢ 82¢ $3,503 $3,501 −$2 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $2,785 $2,990 +$205 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? No 58¢ 69¢ $2,399 $2,857 +$458 (+19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $2,000 $2,185 +$185 (+9%)
Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 52¢ $1,000 $2,133 +$1,133 (+113%)
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,878 $1,995 +$117 (+6%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 37¢ $1,500 $1,498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1,005 $1,268 +$262 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $690 $567 −$122 (-18%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 84¢ $158 $306 +$147 (+93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 26 $7,900 +$54 +1%
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $206 −$76 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 26 $320 −$12 -4%
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $511 −$4 -1%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,014 −$72 -7%
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $511 −$162 -32%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $152 +$121 +79%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $2,067 +$1,490 +72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $780 +$121 +16%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 23 $855 −$487 -57%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $771 +$4,436 +575%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $4,197 −$644 -15%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $390 +$142 +36%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $594 +$1,206 +203%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $615 +$885 +144%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $675 −$602 -89%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $16,303 −$106 -1%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $415 −$407 -98%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $390 −$390 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,215 +$140 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $143,289 −$7,859 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $85,580 −$2,080 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $18,542 +$282 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $47,981 +$249 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $21,949 +$853 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 08 $1,222 +$652 +53%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 08 $523 +$413 +79%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20,630 +$260 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $801 −$716 -89%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $494 −$494 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $6,678 +$103 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $35,471 +$424 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10,047 +$914 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $11,183 +$295 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $6,923 +$76 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $9,780 +$220 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $16,014 +$1,986 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $16,542 +$7,523 +46%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $28,438 +$445 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $160,260 +$1,792 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6,505 +$130 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2,041 −$72 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $13,307 +$758 +6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $9,355 −$2,629 -28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $9,792 −$405 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $6,176 +$63 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 25 $3,196 +$16 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $11,209 +$75 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? May 22 $219 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $85 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $191 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $332 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $1,138 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $4,278 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $2,150 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $72 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 82¢ $822 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 62¢ $1,026 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 82¢ $8,220 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $1,386 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 56¢ $3 29h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? BUY No 54¢ $11 29h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $63 43h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $3 43h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $4 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 80¢ $5,930 44h
Will Cape Verde reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $129 44h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $3,721 44h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA W SELL No 92¢ $308 44h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $507 44h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 52¢ $941 44h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $349 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 79¢ $1,954 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $5,670 46h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $31 46h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $2,199 46h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 55¢ $152 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 35¢ $102 2d
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1,566 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109,092.13 · official $109,401.42 (match) · 3500 history records