Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x744d…3601 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate42%15W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$5
sports 30% −$2
politics 24% −$7
other 6% −$13
tech 4% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.5% -12.7% 25% 12% -10.6%
≤30d 16 +2.4% -7.3% 44% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 34 +1.0% -8.6% 41% 9% -9.8%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 42% 11% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 11% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 8% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 6% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage534d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $74 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 +$3 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $70 −$14 -20%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $83 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $66 +$2 +4%
Will Jernej Vrtovec be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 17 $151 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $45 +$4 +10%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $252 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $251 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $272 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-06? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $34 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $35 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $18 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $11 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $6 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.24 · official $33.34 (match) · 148 history records