Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x744e…4c43 world 333 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$16,734 (-8%) realized −$16,344 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate76%223W / 69L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$666per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$30
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$16,418
other 18% −$6
economics 1% +$1
world 0% +$56
crypto 0% +$22
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% +$4
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +18.9% +7.6% 71% 38% -2.7%
≤30d 71 +8.4% -1.9% 72% 27% -0.3%
≤90d 196 +13.6% +2.8% 72% 21% -3.3%
all 292 +9.1% -1.3% 76% 15% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 15% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 9% -26.5%
15% -19.3% 5% -33.6%
20% -27.2% 5% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$266 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized−$16,344
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses223 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)292 / 333
History coverage164d
Avg bet$666
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 92¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+28%)
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-64%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +300%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$5 +76%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$3 -20%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -88%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $1 $0 -5%
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $65 +$17 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $24 +$5 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $40 $0 -1%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $8 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $3 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $6 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $70 −$20 -29%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? May 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $10 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $14 +$30 +220%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.69 · official $174.29 · 3061 history records