Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
74 0x744f…f173 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized −$155 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,295per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,284
7 days+$346
14 days+$300
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,499
crypto 33% +$1,977
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -15.7% -23.7% 50% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 6 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -5.1%
≤90d 6 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -5.1%
all 6 -28.4% -35.2% 33% 33% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.2% 33% -5.1%
10% -41.4% 33% -14.1%
15% -47.0% 33% -22.4%
20% -52.2% 33% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,284 vs −$567 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3,123
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1,295
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 58¢ 62¢ $2,945 $3,123 +$178 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,961 +$1,977 +67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $289 −$285 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $839 +$592 +71%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,938 −$1,938 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $46 −$45 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $2,982 57m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $4,938 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,961 3h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $289 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $839 44h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,857 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $4 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $46 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $46 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $9 7d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,122.72 · official $3,122.72 (match) · 15 history records