Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:14:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7450…bd47 sports 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%39W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$209
other 46% +$200
crypto 6% −$57
world 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 42% -12.5%
≤30d 83 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 42% -12.5%
≤90d 83 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 42% -12.5%
all 83 -7.0% -15.9% 47% 42% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 42% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 27% -20.9%
15% -31.3% 22% -28.5%
20% -38.0% 16% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses39 / 44
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage6d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $71 +$66 +93%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $121 −$8 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 −$8 -8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $58 +$48 +82%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$38 -75%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $60 +$9 +15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$64 +63%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Second half draw? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -81%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $156 −$5 -3%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $6 +$37 +606%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$58 +182%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $80 −$16 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$15 +30%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 20 $100 −$12 -12%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $20 −$13 -64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$8 -75%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$3 -16%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$11 -21%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $202 +$96 +47%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 −$81 -92%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $211 −$111 -53%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$5 -15%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $82 +$419 +513%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +20%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $131 −$80 -61%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $5 −$5 -89%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $1 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay $1 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 64¢ $7 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 91¢ $100 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 12¢ $2 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $40 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $49 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 53¢ $20 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 11h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium $0 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium $1 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $37 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 14h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $10 18h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 18h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 69¢ $50 19h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 19h
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.27 · official $114.27 (match) · 218 history records