Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7454…6cc9 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3238 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$610 (-8%) realized −$616 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate66%104W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3238.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3238 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 44% -10.7%
≤30d 158 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 44% -10.7%
≤90d 158 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 44% -10.7%
all 158 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3238.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 44% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 1% -19.2%
15% -29.0% 1% -27.0%
20% -36.0% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$616
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses104 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3238.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 78¢ 78¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 0¢ 22¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $69 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $88 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $136 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $80 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $122 −$32 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $101 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$3 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $73 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $42 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $116 −$21 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $29 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $169 −$24 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $126 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $125 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $85 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $84 −$14 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.50 · official $37.70 · 3500 history records