Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7458…82ba sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-14%) realized −$65 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$130
other 15% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 57% 57% -38.8%
≤30d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 57% 57% -38.8%
≤90d 7 -16.2% -24.2% 57% 57% -38.8%
all 7 -16.2% -24.2% 57% 57% -38.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 57% -38.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 29% -44.6%
15% -38.0% 29% -50.0%
20% -44.1% 29% -54.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$68 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric Jun 23 $101 +$15 +15%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $33 +$4 +14%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $12 +$8 +65%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $146 −$146 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 24m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 24m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 24m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $16 24m
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric SELL Gabriela Ce 70¢ $117 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $10 2h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 54¢ $25 2h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $1 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 82¢ $1 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $1 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $1 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 81¢ $2 3h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 87¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 87¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 87¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 87¢ $4 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $2 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 88¢ $5 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $2 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 89¢ $1 4h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva BUY Anna Kubareva 98¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $12 6h
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric BUY Gabriela Ce 63¢ $51 8h
ITF Tarvisio: Gabriela Ce vs Pia Lovric BUY Gabriela Ce 56¢ $51 8h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 67¢ $2 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 67¢ $9 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 67¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.14 · official $68.15 (match) · 42 history records