Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

74 0x7458…b44e other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$166 (-7%) realized −$52 · open −$114

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip

Net edge+19%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate62%5W / 3L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$144per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$589now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-2.1%	-11.4%	50%	17%	-13.1%
≤30d	6	-2.1%	-11.4%	50%	17%	-13.1%
≤90d	8	+31.9%	+19.4%	62%	38%	+2.3%
all	8	+31.9%	+19.4%	62%	38%	+2.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.4%	38%	+2.3%
10%	+7.9%	12%	-7.5%
15%	-2.5%	12%	-16.4%
20%	-12.1%	12%	-24.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$11 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.79 per $1 lost it wins $3.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage

Net worth$589

Realized−$52

Unrealized−$114

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses5 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)8 / 16

History coverage64d

Avg bet$144

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$514	$503	−$11 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	28¢	28¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	10¢	1¢	$110	$7	−$103 (-93%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$51	−$3	-6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$51	+$1	+3%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$51	+$6	+12%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$103	−$20	-20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$154	−$9	-6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 16	$103	+$4	+4%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Apr 15	$137	+$22	+16%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	Apr 15	$35	+$88	+251%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$488	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$49	1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$53	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$58	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$82	1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$145	1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$20	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$20	4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	3¢	$10	9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$107	9h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$51	29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$51	29h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	12¢	$100	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	11¢	$729	29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	13¢	$800	33h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	14¢	$110	34h
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	64¢	$159	61d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	65¢	$123	62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	SELL Yes	25¢	$123	62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	24¢	$14	64d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $589.31 · official $589.32 (match) · 32 history records