Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7459…7881 other 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$388per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$14
politics 25% −$6
crypto 7% −$4
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 34 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$865) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage81d
Avg bet$388
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $973 −$2 -0%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 16 $957 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $901 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $55 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 15 $20 $0 -1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 13? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $824 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? May 14 $865 −$4 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? May 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $864 −$4 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Mar 28 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5m
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $971 14m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 22m
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 29m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 36m
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $29 47m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 53m
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $957 1h
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $958 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $44 17h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $987 18h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $957 18h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 18h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $999 18h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 18h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 18h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $973 18h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $695 19h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 19h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 19h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 19h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $941 19h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 38h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,010 38h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 38h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $958 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records