Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:55:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

74 0x745c…5608 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$320 (-19%) realized −$320 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate47%9W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$82per market

Trades / day3.3pace

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$390

7 days−$349

14 days−$349

30 days−$349

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-34.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-27.1%	-34.0%	47%	42%	-28.5%
≤30d	19	-27.1%	-34.0%	47%	42%	-28.5%
≤90d	19	-27.1%	-34.0%	47%	42%	-28.5%
all	19	-27.1%	-34.0%	47%	42%	-28.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.0%	42%	-28.5%
10%	-40.3%	32%	-35.4%
15%	-46.1%	26%	-41.6%
20%	-51.4%	11%	-47.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -5% → late -47% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$63 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$320

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses9 / 10

Open positions2

Markets (closed)19 / 21

History coverage11d

Avg bet$82

Trades / day3.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	78¢	88¢	$4	$4	+$0 (+12%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$394	−$390	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$373	+$124	+33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$126	+$47	+37%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Jun 24	$160	+$11	+7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Jun 24	$102	+$55	+53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$62	−$62	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Jun 23	$113	−$111	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$70	+$8	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 21	$25	+$9	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 21	$31	−$19	-61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 21	$10	+$2	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 21	$57	−$24	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$1	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 21	$31	+$14	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 21	$31	+$17	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	BUY No	78¢	$4	36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$293	46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$171	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$25	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$201	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$101	2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	SELL No	40¢	$171	2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	SELL No	65¢	$157	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	61¢	$113	3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	BUY No	68¢	$30	4d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	BUY Yes	17¢	$52	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	90¢	$70	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$25	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$25	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$25	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	9¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.06 · official $54.06 (match) · 51 history records