Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
74 0x745c…bb5e other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$21 (+26%) realized +$24 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days+$30
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% +$28
sports 24% +$6
economics 22% −$18
world 13% −$2
crypto 12% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+46.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +148.9% +125.2% 100% 100% +125.2%
≤30d 3 +112.2% +92.0% 100% 100% +94.0%
≤90d 3 +112.2% +92.0% 100% 100% +94.0%
all 5 +62.2% +46.7% 80% 80% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +46.7% 80% +27.3%
10% +32.7% 60% +15.1%
15% +19.9% 60% +4.0%
20% +8.1% 40% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +114% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +62% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$18 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage234d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $9 +$4 +39%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 03 $10 +$7 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 25m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 25m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 34¢ $18 164d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 72¢ $9 227d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $10 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.01 · official $19.01 (match) · 28 history records