Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7465…caa8 sports 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,327 (-7%) realized −$2,316 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%171W / 178L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$110
14 days+$265
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,271
other 1% −$198
world 0% −$45
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 52% -15.0%
≤30d 101 +3.6% -6.2% 52% 49% -4.5%
≤90d 303 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 45% -12.8%
all 349 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 44% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 44% -16.1%
10% -25.3% 41% -24.2%
15% -32.5% 33% -31.5%
20% -39.2% 27% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$51 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized−$2,316
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses171 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions14
Markets (closed)349 / 363
History coverage142d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 63¢ 52¢ $80 $66 −$14 (-17%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 88¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+23%)
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Prelims) Vinicius Oliveira 57¢ 50¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-12%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 65¢ 62¢ $43 $42 −$2 (-4%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 45¢ 44¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Main Card) Navajo Stirling 66¢ 72¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 38¢ 40¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Prelims) Levan Chokheli 79¢ 69¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 40¢ 70¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+76%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 60¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 70¢ 30¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $337 −$239 -71%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $142 +$40 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $179 +$51 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $120 +$30 +25%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $86 +$56 +65%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -83%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $10 +$6 +61%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $126 +$62 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $73 −$1 -1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $15 +$12 +76%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 11 $15 +$12 +77%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $250 +$5 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $10 +$12 +116%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $186 +$53 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Jhonata Diniz vs. José Luiz (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 09 $26 −$1 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $30 −$30 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $31 −$1 -2%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $633 +$160 +25%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $20 +$17 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $119 +$61 +51%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 +$27 +1333%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $127 +$44 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $60 +$22 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $106 +$26 +25%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $401 +$31 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -18%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $36 +$24 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $75 +$20 +26%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $91 −$90 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $25 +$35 +139%
UFC Fight Night: Victor Henry vs. Bryce Mitchell (Bantamweight, Main C May 31 $10 $0 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Jakub Wiklacz vs. Marcus McGhee (Bantamweight, Main C May 31 $20 −$1 -5%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 30 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $194 +$48 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 45¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 79¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $61 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $17 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $38 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $24 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 100¢ $230 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $81 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 18h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $25 22h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 25h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 25h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $78 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 27h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Spurs 61¢ $10 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $100 27h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $10 33h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 66¢ $28 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 38h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $41 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $10 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $25 40h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Ion Cutelaba 29¢ $14 2d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 33¢ $17 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.55 · official $412.56 (match) · 1055 history records