Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
74 0x746b…8a94 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$258 (-4%) realized −$271 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate63%39W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$293
14 days−$697
30 days−$697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% −$362
world 25% +$187
other 22% −$265
politics 8% +$107
crypto 3% +$73
sports 1% −$80
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.8% -24.7% 56% 50% -34.1%
≤30d 23 -24.6% -31.8% 48% 43% -42.7%
≤90d 62 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 48% -13.0%
all 62 -10.7% -19.2% 63% 48% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 48% -13.0%
10% -26.9% 34% -21.3%
15% -34.0% 26% -28.9%
20% -40.5% 16% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$85 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses39 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage74d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 59¢ 66¢ $115 $128 +$13 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 +$48 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$14 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$18 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$9 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 +$9 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$28 +46%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 22 $208 −$197 -95%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 22 $105 −$56 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 +$37 +52%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $404 −$383 -95%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$4 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $405 +$170 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $100 +$59 +59%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $101 +$38 +37%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 15 $10 +$16 +159%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 13 $105 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $102 +$10 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 11 $201 +$25 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $100 +$22 +22%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 06 $101 +$34 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 04 $100 +$28 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $500 +$9 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $203 +$395 +194%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$13 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$20 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $210 +$31 +15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 29 $204 −$181 -89%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $100 +$12 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $100 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 59¢ $116 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $66 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $55 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $90 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? SELL Yes $11 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $48 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $70 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 8d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 8d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes $21 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $96 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $100 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $404 21d
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? BUY Yes $104 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.72 · official $127.72 (match) · 129 history records