Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

74 0x746e…3e68 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$87 (+5%) realized +$87 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%6W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$504

7 days−$129

14 days−$101

30 days−$15

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-35.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-41.7%	-47.2%	22%	22%	-17.1%
≤30d	20	-28.5%	-35.3%	30%	30%	-10.3%
≤90d	20	-28.5%	-35.3%	30%	30%	-10.3%
all	20	-28.5%	-35.3%	30%	30%	-10.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-35.3%	30%	-10.3%
10%	-41.5%	30%	-18.9%
15%	-47.2%	30%	-26.7%
20%	-52.4%	30%	-33.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 63% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -21% → late -36% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$117 vs −$51 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.98 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$87

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses6 / 14

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage21d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$60	−$5	-8%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$17	+$40	+232%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$39	−$37	-94%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$10	−$9	-94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 20	$53	−$53	-100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 20	$64	−$31	-49%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 20	$143	−$143	-100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$58	−$58	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 20	$159	−$159	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 20	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 20	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$37	+$24	+64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$493	+$442	+90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$33	−$10	-30%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$13	−$13	-100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$117	−$117	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$166	+$85	+51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$29	+$28	+97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$106	+$86	+82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	68¢	$55	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	75¢	$57	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$4	2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$9	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$60	5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$19	6h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	7h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$4	10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$37	29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	99¢	$935	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$231	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$222	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$11	2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$18	2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$52	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	7¢	$21	3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	20¢	$23	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	52¢	$23	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$33	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	12¢	$33	4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$53	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$143	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	40¢	$53	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records