Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
74 0x7471…cdac crypto 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$349 (-1%) realized −$354 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate74%470W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$91
14 days−$69
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$304
world 18% +$18
other 10% −$16
sports 9% −$87
politics 5% +$11
economics 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.7% -14.7% 81% 14% -13.6%
≤30d 123 -10.8% -19.3% 74% 11% -14.5%
≤90d 407 -2.3% -11.6% 76% 8% -11.3%
all 631 -1.8% -11.1% 74% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -10.9%
10% -19.6% 3% -19.4%
15% -27.4% 2% -27.2%
20% -34.5% 1% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$354
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses470 / 161
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)631 / 639
History coverage170d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 631 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 91¢ 96¢ $51 $54 +$3 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 88¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $105 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 17 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $17 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.25 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 15 $40 −$2 -4%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 14? Jun 15 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 14 $44 +$10 +22%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 14? Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 14 $80 +$2 +2%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 13? Jun 14 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -94%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$6 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$26 +65%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $210 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 11 $58 +$4 +7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1 $0 -50%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 $0 -50%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Bratislava: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Emilio Nava Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 7? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 7? Jun 08 $45 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $5 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 94¢ $50 8h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.37 · official $233.65 · 3039 history records