Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x7475…fc7e
crypto · 1197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,111 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,125 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,125
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses513 / 683
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1196 / 1197
History coverage224d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 1196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$85
14 days−$93
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Up 30¢ 52¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$12 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$5 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$10 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$10 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$11 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$8 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$20 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $28 +$9 +33%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 27 $4 +$9 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$983
sports 5% −$58
other 2% −$67
tech 0% −$3
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $21 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.8% -22.9% 40% 40% -27.1%
≤30d 163 -14.3% -22.5% 38% 36% -21.0%
≤90d 580 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 37% -16.9%
all 1196 -8.5% -17.3% 43% 36% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 36% -14.9%
10% -25.2% 31% -23.0%
15% -32.4% 28% -30.5%
20% -39.0% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.58 · official $33.58 (match) · 3484 history records