Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7475…2a10 sports 375 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,158 (-16%) realized −$2,291 · open +$133
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%152W / 213L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$2,307
sports 13% +$296
other 9% +$52
crypto 7% −$99
economics 1% −$90
culture 1% −$42
tech 1% +$13
world 0% +$9
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +20.0% +8.6% 100% 50% +12.9%
≤90d 20 -16.9% -24.8% 65% 40% -19.6%
all 365 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 38% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 38% -25.9%
10% -27.3% 34% -33.0%
15% -34.3% 28% -39.4%
20% -40.7% 22% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$23 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$683
Realized−$2,291
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses152 / 213
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)365 / 375
History coverage594d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 90¢ $400 $551 +$151 (+38%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 53¢ 97¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+84%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-57%)
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Toronto Marlies 76¢ 54¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Indiana Fever 54¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 69¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 Jun 01 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $50 +$5 +11%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $20 +$1 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $51 +$24 +47%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $303 +$23 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 11 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 08 $91 +$25 +27%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec May 08 $10 +$9 +89%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 May 04 $111 +$46 +41%
Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral e May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 27 $50 +$20 +39%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Apr 27 $111 +$39 +36%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Mar 16 $38 +$11 +30%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 16 $96 +$41 +43%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 16 $105 +$64 +61%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 16 $20 +$21 +104%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 16 $2 +$53 +2650%
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Mar 16 $84 +$16 +19%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 16 $82 +$18 +22%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 07 $545 −$545 -100%
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assem Feb 07 $171 +$66 +39%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Feb 02 $260 +$93 +36%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Feb 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 21 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Union Progressiste pour le Renouveau (UPR) win the most seats in Jan 21 $100 +$18 +18%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $37 −$37 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 07 $40 +$10 +26%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Represent Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Rixi Ramona Moncada Godoy win the 2025 Honduras presidential elec Dec 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 28 $5 −$5 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 28 $120 −$69 -58%
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the Dec 28 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 28 $400 +$226 +56%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Dec 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aristides Teixeira win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 69¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Toronto Marlies 76¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 54¢ $5 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 53¢ $5 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 97¢ $20 18d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Chicago Cubs 100¢ $20 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 65¢ $406 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY No 9¢ $2 31d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 31d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 97¢ $300 38d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 39d
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 39d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 39d
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 BUY Yes 91¢ $50 39d
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i BUY Yes 90¢ $50 39d
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 39d
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum BUY Yes 75¢ $50 39d
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral BUY Yes 79¢ $50 45d
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el BUY Yes 67¢ $51 48d
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec BUY Yes 52¢ $10 48d
Will Caroline Woodley win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral e BUY Yes 3¢ $1 48d
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral BUY Yes 77¢ $40 48d
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 BUY Yes 70¢ $111 49d
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat BUY Yes 58¢ $20 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.44 · official $683.44 (match) · 869 history records