Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
74 0x7478…4003 tech 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,608 (+5%) realized +$5,225 · open −$617
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate75%141W / 48L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$45,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$626
14 days+$984
30 days+$984
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$112
other 25% +$2,800
tech 22% +$713
sports 2% +$208
economics 2% +$466
culture 1% +$166
world 0% +$43
crypto 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.7% -5.3% 80% 80% +11.7%
≤30d 21 +23.9% +12.1% 86% 81% +14.8%
≤90d 30 +26.0% +14.0% 87% 83% +16.5%
all 189 +8.7% -1.7% 75% 55% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 55% +0.7%
10% -11.1% 38% -8.9%
15% -19.7% 22% -17.7%
20% -27.5% 15% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$69 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$45,023
Realized+$5,225
Unrealized−$617
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses141 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions61
Markets (closed)189 / 250
History coverage372d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 79¢ 76¢ $32,106 $30,963 −$1,143 (-4%)
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No 80¢ 97¢ $2,223 $2,711 +$488 (+22%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $1,089 $1,251 +$162 (+15%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $1,068 $1,198 +$130 (+12%)
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No 82¢ 94¢ $582 $670 +$88 (+15%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $630 $609 −$21 (-3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $600 $599 −$1 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes 95¢ 93¢ $610 $595 −$15 (-2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $386 $439 +$54 (+14%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 88¢ $422 $435 +$13 (+3%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $297 $350 +$53 (+18%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 98¢ $50 $338 +$288 (+577%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 87¢ 84¢ $330 $321 −$9 (-3%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $310 $316 +$6 (+2%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 84¢ 88¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 75¢ 99¢ $225 $297 +$72 (+32%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? Yes 88¢ 85¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $269 $271 +$2 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? No 20¢ 98¢ $50 $249 +$199 (+398%)
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 70¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $137 $173 +$35 (+26%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $132 $153 +$21 (+16%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $100 $153 +$53 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? Jun 29 $60 +$13 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$21 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $110 +$33 +30%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $40 +$14 +34%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $84 +$16 +19%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $236 +$100 +42%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 +$52 +50%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,428 +$387 +27%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $380 +$81 +21%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $480 +$150 +31%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $60 +$64 +107%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $16 +$22 +133%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $213 +$108 +51%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? May 12 $13 +$7 +54%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $20 +$27 +133%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2026? May 12 $44 +$6 +15%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? May 12 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? May 12 $89 +$79 +88%
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026? May 12 $996 +$319 +32%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 25 $142 +$40 +28%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 09 $370 +$130 +35%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Feb 12 $84 +$16 +19%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 12 $93 +$7 +8%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Feb 12 $120 +$37 +31%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? Feb 12 $186 +$14 +8%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 12 $191 +$25 +13%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 12 $469 +$37 +8%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 12 $701 +$44 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 12 $1,100 +$34 +3%
Brazil unemployment below 6.3% for Q4 2025? Feb 12 $1,542 +$466 +30%
Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? Jan 28 $100 +$65 +66%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jan 24 $169 +$47 +28%
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awar Jan 23 $50 +$5 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 20 $10 +$10 +96%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $11 +$9 +75%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $301 −$301 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $13 +$7 +59%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 17 $101 −$96 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 29¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 34¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 42¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance BUY Argentina 93¢ $80 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 18h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 18h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $503 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 21h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $51 21h
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $201 21h
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $101 21h
Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 21h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $10 21h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $10 21h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 21h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $15 21h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 21h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 21h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jul BUY No 97¢ $10 21h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 89¢ $100 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,022.71 · official $45,022.80 (match) · 1337 history records