Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x7479…43a7 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% $0
other 13% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 20% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 17 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 6% -9.5%
all 32 -2.1% -11.4% 59% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage466d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 +$3 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $62 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $49 −$6 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Liberal Party win by 25–49 seats? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will 'A Working Man' gross more than 17m on opening weekend? Mar 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $3 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $34 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $38 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $38 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $38 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $14 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $38 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $38 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $2 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.20 · official $34.20 (match) · 97 history records