Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x747a…5d3d other 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 253L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 22% −$17
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$16
world 5% −$8
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 188 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 266 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage138d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $597 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $451 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $512 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $383 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $525 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $170 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $683 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $391 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $463 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $147 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $233 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $687 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $51 14m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $51 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $51 11h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 12h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 14h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 19h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 26h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 27h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 33h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 35h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 36h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 38h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 40h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 41h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 46h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 47h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1439 history records