Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

74
0x747a…2d62
other · 50 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$43 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses10 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage589d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 28 $82 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $63 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $64 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $11 +$7 +59%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 03 $42 $0 +1%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 25 $18 +$8 +42%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 27 $4 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 03 $13,519 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 21 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $19 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $294 −$3 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $1,358 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 03 $501 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Nov 03 $627 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 77% −$14
politics 16% −$10
other 4% +$12
culture 1% $0
sports 1% −$34
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $10 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 22d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $6 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 26d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 26d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 26d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $67 26d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $67 26d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $66 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $66 27d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $10 29d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 34d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 34d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 37d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 37d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 17% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 34 -4.2% -13.3% 24% 15% -11.0%
all 48 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 10% -18.4%
15% -28.5% 10% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.92 · official $19.92 (match) · 231 history records