Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x747d…73b7 crypto 991 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 95d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$411 (+4%) realized +$411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%541W / 450L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$349
14 days+$349
30 days+$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.4% -9.2% 67% 52% -4.7%
≤30d 90 -10.0% -18.6% 60% 52% -5.6%
≤90d 858 -10.0% -18.6% 53% 44% -8.2%
all 991 -8.7% -17.4% 55% 45% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 45% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -17.1%
15% -32.5% 25% -25.1%
20% -39.1% 18% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses541 / 450
Open positions0
Markets (closed)991 / 991
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 991 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $202 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET Jun 22 $1,024 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9AM ET Jun 22 $188 −$145 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $309 +$92 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $103 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $206 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $71 +$42 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$89 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $104 +$102 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $92 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $105 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2PM ET Jun 21 $518 −$39 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $115 +$50 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $313 +$436 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $208 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$86 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1PM ET Jun 21 $328 +$253 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$180 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $307 +$108 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $204 +$70 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $20 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$7 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $223 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $867 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $509 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $89 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 80¢ $396 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $137 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $88 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records