Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
74 0x747f…ad68 crypto 1062 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (130 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,797 (-31%) realized −$2,795 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%447W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day130.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$314
14 days−$612
30 days−$1,077
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$338
sports 30% −$253
weather 12% −$252
other 11% −$235
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (130 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 166 -29.6% -36.3% 45% 34% -33.1%
≤30d 1055 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 25% -20.5%
≤90d 1055 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 25% -20.5%
all 1055 -13.0% -21.3% 42% 25% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 25% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 13% -28.1%
15% -35.7% 9% -35.1%
20% -42.0% 5% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$2,795
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses447 / 608
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1055 / 1062
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day130.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1055 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 69¢ 80¢ $60 $69 +$9 (+15%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 81¢ 94¢ $44 $52 +$7 (+17%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 40¢ $51 $37 −$14 (-28%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 74¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-12%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 75¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 23¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$24 +235%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $34 +$3 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $14 −$11 -75%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $13 −$11 -84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 +$11 +41%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$9 +175%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 +$16 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$2 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $8 +$4 +51%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +46%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +36%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $9 +$7 +74%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 −$7 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +174%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $8 +$13 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $7 +$4 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$11 +111%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 +$8 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $52 34m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $13 35m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $2 36m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $13 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $45 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $61 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $12 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 95¢ $15 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 96¢ $34 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 13h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $17 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $15 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 8¢ $4 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 44¢ $20 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $18 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 5¢ $2 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $30 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 14h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $14 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $2 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $13 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $15 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $10 15h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 16h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 16h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.11 · official $171.11 (match) · 3500 history records