Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:01:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
74 0x7484…de96 sports 157 markets active 0h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,148 (-12%) realized −$7,148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%74W / 83L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$499est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,968
7 days−$1,968
14 days−$1,357
30 days−$2,845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$8,854
other 34% +$280
world 1% +$61
politics 1% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -38.8% -44.7% 0% 0% -30.0%
≤30d 8 -23.5% -30.8% 12% 12% -35.1%
≤90d 60 +2.0% -7.7% 45% 45% -32.0%
all 157 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 44% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 44% -21.9%
10% -22.6% 41% -29.4%
15% -30.1% 36% -36.2%
20% -36.9% 30% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$196 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses74 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$499
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage237d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $517 −$220 -43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $511 −$121 -24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,033 −$1,027 -34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $2,069 −$526 -25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,908 −$74 -3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $296 +$611 +206%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $20 −$19 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $1,983 −$1,469 -74%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $619 −$97 -16%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 21 $496 −$487 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $1,158 −$1,135 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $102 +$264 +260%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $2,577 −$2,549 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 15 $25 +$24 +94%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 15 $56 +$52 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 15 $101 +$52 +52%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 14 $50 +$32 +64%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 14 $50 +$46 +93%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $305 −$158 -52%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 13 $80 −$79 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $101 +$31 +30%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 13 $107 −$105 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $100 +$68 +67%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win - Game 1 Winner May 08 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A May 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $2,011 +$509 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $100 +$27 +27%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $102 −$11 -11%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 26 $100 +$88 +88%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $150 +$109 +73%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $250 −$172 -69%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 25 $150 −$43 -29%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $100 +$34 +34%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $389 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $396 +$52 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $504 +$294 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 18 $496 −$487 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $550 +$206 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $100 +$86 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $50 +$44 +87%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $753 +$489 +65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 29 $71 +$53 +76%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 28 $500 +$461 +92%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 28 $100 −$72 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 16¢ $297 19m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 29¢ $378 28m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $139 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 20¢ $390 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $511 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 12¢ $111 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 42¢ $509 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $506 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 22¢ $175 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $506 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 40¢ $339 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 38¢ $328 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 29¢ $511 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 61¢ $1,414 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $1,002 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 34¢ $401 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 65¢ $799 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 42¢ $799 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $764 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 40¢ $345 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $506 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 93¢ $927 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $615 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 43¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 42¢ $600 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 53¢ $800 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 34¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 55¢ $531 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 50¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 44¢ $675 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 619 history records